Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
