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It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause for the team's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six games, find themselves a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough proposition to address. History, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.

As per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against United.

His opener came from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
• The winger could transform into the player he was in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a vital player for the national team.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.