Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
